Research Article |
Corresponding author: Clément Duret ( clement.duret@uliege.be ) Academic editor: Janet Franklin
© 2025 Clément Duret, Tiphanie Bartet, Alain Hambuckers, Osamu Kishida, Sumio Okada, Yuki Taguchi, Mizuki K. Takahashi, Mathieu Denoël.
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Citation:
Duret C, Bartet T, Hambuckers A, Kishida O, Okada S, Taguchi Y, Takahashi MK, Denoël M (2025) Loss of habitat suitability and distribution range of the endangered Japanese giant salamander under climate change. Frontiers of Biogeography 18: e133105. https://doi.org/10.21425/fob.18.133105
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Giant salamanders are the world’s largest amphibians and keystone predators in riverine ecosystems where they face global declines. Identifying environmental variables influencing their distribution is, therefore, an essential step for their conservation. This study aims to assess the current habitat suitability and distribution of the Japanese giant salamander (Andrias japonicus) and to predict changes under future climate scenarios. We used species distribution models (SDMs) over a 282,916 km² area, including 477 high-resolution occurrence data of giant salamanders and seven remote-sensing environmental predictors (climatic, topographic and land use). We projected the prediction maps, identified the most contributing variables and calculated the shifts of suitable areas for three periods (2050, 2070 and 2090) under projected climatic conditions. Climatic variables highly contributed to the distribution of giant salamanders (76% of the total), with preferences for areas with moderate precipitations during cold and wet seasons and mild summer temperatures. A moderately steep surrounding environment was favourable for salamanders, whereas the land-use variables had less influence. Future climate predictions indicate a major decrease of suitable areas. Altogether, our results highlight the habitat preferences of giant salamanders at a broad scale and the negative impact of climate change on future suitable areas. These findings provide important steps for upcoming conservation actions for this threatened species in delineating favourable distribution ranges and priority areas that should be directly affected by climate change. Finally, they emphasise the need for new research at a fine scale on disturbances to the aquatic habitat to enhance the conservation of giant salamanders.
We used a species distribution model (MaxEnt), high-resolution occurrence data and remote sensing data (climatic, topographic and land use) to identify suitable habitats for the Japanese giant salamander in Japan.
The most suitable environments for the Japanese giant salamander are located both within and beyond its current distribution range, with the ‘Japanese Alps’ forming an impassable natural barrier.
Among the variables studied, precipitation of the warmest quarter, precipitation of the coldest quarter, mean temperature of the warmest quarter and mean temperature of the wettest quarter were the most important environmental predictors of the species’ distribution.
Climate change is expected to severely reduce the potential suitable geographical areas for the Japanese giant salamander in the future.
The present work calls for new surveys based on the projected maps to improve the mapping of salamander distribution and to focus on ecological features and threats at the aquatic habitat level to understand the risks to their populations.
Amphibian decline, Andrias japonicus, climate change, ecology, giant salamanders, habitat suitability, MaxEnt, projected distribution maps, species distribution models
In recent decades, an increasing number of species have faced multiple threats to their survival, leading to a drastic biodiversity decline. Climate change is one of the main global environmental concerns, posing miscellaneous issues such as habitat modifications, alterations of species interactions (
SDMs have become one of the most widely used tools in macroecology in recent years (
Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates, with 40.7% of species globally threatened (
Giant salamanders (family Cryptobranchidae) are “living fossils” with a suite of unique traits, particularly their huge size (up to 1.8 m long), but also their retention of some larval traits at the adult stage (i.e. paedomorphosis), aquatic lifestyle, external fertilisation, parental care and walking mode of locomotion (
The major objectives of this study were to determine the potential habitat suitability of the Japanese giant salamander both within and beyond the known range of the species, to identify priority areas and to highlight the environmental drivers of its distribution. The limits of the distribution due to the ‘Japanese Alps’ and possibly to unfavourable climatic conditions will be investigated to understand the absence of the giant salamanders beyond this geographical barrier. The second main purpose of this study was to make projections of the future distribution of Japanese giant salamanders according to climate change scenarios. Our SDM approach took the benefit of combining a large number of precise locations of salamander occurrences across the distribution range with a multiple set of fine-scaled environmental variables, including climatic, topographic and land-use variables. We hypothesised that climatic variables should have a very large contribution to the distribution model and that cold and wet conditions in hilly areas should favour this species, whereas land use should less affect this species due to its fully aquatic lifestyle. We presume that areas with excessive precipitation are likely unsuitable for the species, due to excessive risk of flooding. We hypothesised that the future climate will globally result in the contraction of suitable habitats for the Japanese giant salamander within its current range. Given the climate differences between the northern and southern parts of Honshu Island, we hypothesised that climate change may make areas in the northern part of Japan, i.e. beyond the current range of the species, more suitable for Japanese giant salamanders in the future than within the current range.
Distribution map of the Japanese giant salamander in Japan (Honshu, Shikoku and Kyushu Islands) provided by the IUCN SSC Amphibian Specialist Group in 2022 (modified) with the occurrence points used in the study (blue dots). The map background represents the mean altitudes (1 × 1 km grid, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism of Japan).
To investigate the distribution of suitable habitats for the Japanese giant salamander, we defined the study area, based on the actual range of the species provided by the IUCN (
The occurrence data of Japanese giant salamanders were obtained from our field surveys as well as from previously published studies in Hyogo, Hiroshima, Gifu, Mie, Nara, Oita, Osaka, and Tottori Prefectures (
To assess the distribution of the Japanese giant salamander, we used the presence data and their corresponding environmental characteristics, considering climatic, topographic and land-use predictors at a 1 km² resolution. As it is recommended to avoid too many predictors in the same models and to focus on variables likely to influence the distribution of the species (
SDMs for the Japanese giant salamander were developed using MaxEnt 3.4.1 (
We considered ‘masked geographically structured rules’ (
Model tuning and selection were performed using the R package ENMeval 2.0 (
We tested different combinations of simple and complex feature classes – L, LQ, H and LHQ (L = linear, Q = quadratic, H = hinge). We excluded the “product” and “threshold” feature classes as their omission results in easier to interpret models (
As SDMs selected by minimising AICc may not perform well on withheld data (
We generated future projections of the Japanese giant salamander distribution for three periods: 2050 (average for 2041–2060), 2070 (average for 2061–2080) and 2090 (average for 2081–2100). We considered two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios (i.e. climatic scenarios), based on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs): SSP126, a remake of the RCP2.6, equal to the optimistic scenario (i.e. with a reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in the future) and SSP370, a scenario between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, which represents the pessimistic scenario (i.e. with a continuous increase of carbon dioxide emissions in the future) in our study. We averaged the climate data among four global circulation models (GCMs) – CMCC-ESM2, MIROC6, IPSL-CM6A-LR and MRI-ESM2-0 – to reduce the uncertainties among the models in order to produce the maps of future habitat suitability of the Japanese giant salamander. Future climate projections for all models were retrieved from WorldClim version 2 (
The selected model for current habitat suitability and the projections were mapped on to the study area using a log-log (‘cloglog’) approximation of the probability of presence of the species (
The optimal MaxEnt model included all LQH feature classes and a small value of regularisation multiplier (rm = 1), suggesting a complex relationship between the Japanese giant salamander distribution and the environmental predictors. The training AUC with this model was 0.87, the average validation AUC was 0.71 ± 0.11. The partial ROC AUC ratio was 1.43. The model performed convincingly when its metrics were compared to those of the null models (Suppl. material
The selected MaxEnt model was mainly influenced by climatic predictors with a total contribution of 76.21%, which was split into 36.73% for the precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18), 13.77% for the precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19), 13.54% for the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (Bio10) and 12.17% for the mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8). Precipitation and temperature variables contributed to 50.5% and 25.71% of the model, respectively. The contribution of the mean slope was of 11.62%. Land-use predictors (urban and agricultural) contributed to 9.36% and 2.81%, respectively. All contribution values are based on the permutation importance of each variable.
According to the response curves of the five most contributing environmental predictors, the probability of presence of Japanese giant salamanders was the highest in areas with an average air temperature around 20–24°C, whereas all areas between freezing average temperature and 20° air temperature, as well as those warmer than 24°C, were less favourable. The probability of presence of the Japanese giant salamanders is high at relatively low average precipitation, with increase of precipitations favourable in the coldest quarter (around 100–300 mm) and unfavourable in the wettest quarter, with a sharp decrease of suitability above 500 mm precipitation. Beside climatic variables, the probability of presence increased with the mean slopes of the surrounding lands up to 17% but decreasing for steeper areas (Fig.
The current habitat suitability map for the Japanese giant salamander (Fig.
Response curves from the MaxEnt model of the five predictor variables contributing the most to the habitat suitability of the Japanese giant salamander. For each response curve, the grey area represents the range of values observed in Japan and the dotted brown vertical lines delineate the minimum and maximum values of the occurrence data. Photo of Japanese giant salamander by M. Denoël.
The results of the projections of future changes in habitat suitability (Fig.
Projection maps of changes in habitat suitability of the Japanese giant salamander for three time periods considering an optimistic (SSP126) and a pessimistic scenario (SSP370) for future climate change. Brown lines represent the current distribution of the Japanese giant salamander according to the IUCN. Change in habitat suitability was determined by subtracting the current habitat suitability (Fig.
Sankey diagrams of the predicted evolution of habitat suitability within the current distribution range of the Japanese giant salamander for each time period (2050, 2070 and 2090) and climate change scenario (SSP126: optimistic scenario; SSP370: pessimistic scenario). A gain of habitat suitability was considered when the change in habitat suitability was > 0.1, a loss was identified when the change was < -0.1 and stability when the change was between -0.1 and 0.1.
Our SDM approach allowed us to delineate suitable areas, determine environmental drivers of distributions and predict changes in the geographic range of the emblematic and threatened Japanese giant salamander. It supports globally our hypotheses, particularly highlighting the role of climatic drivers in explaining distribution patterns. These findings provide new key information on the role of climate change in causing a loss of favourable habitats for this original freshwater megafauna species. Altogether, these global threats add to the risks associated with habitat fragmentation and destruction (
Of the seven tested environmental predictors, six had a contribution to the distribution of the species greater than 10% (Fig.
Another important parameter for water velocity and dissolved oxygen is the slope. This parameter also appears to be very important for the distribution of salamanders. The higher the mean slope of the surrounding environment, the higher the probability of the presence of salamanders becomes. However, there is an upper slope limit beyond 17%, where suitability decreases. Steeper slopes result in higher water velocities and, in mountainous areas, streams tend to be smaller as the slope increases, which may not be ideal for giant salamanders. However, the mean slope of the terrain does not necessarily reflect the slope of the rivers. Our results are comparable to those on habitat preferences of the Chinese giant salamander (Andrias davidianus), where slope, temperature and precipitations strongly influence habitat suitability for this species (
The projection of the current potential distribution (Fig.
Our projections of the distribution of the Japanese giant salamander in the upcoming decades using SDMs suggest that suitable areas for the species will severely decrease both within and beyond the current distribution range of the species. The decrease of highly suitable areas will be more moderate beyond the current distribution range of the species (Fig.
Our findings suggest that the northern part of the Honshu Island may be able to hold large areas of suitable habitats for the Japanese giant salamander in the present and the future (Figs
In addition to highlighting that the Japanese giant salamander populations would be threatened by future climate change, it is necessary to keep in mind the current endangered status of this species. The conservation status rank of the species was changed from Near Threatened to Vulnerable in the 2022 IUCN Red List (
By using SDMs, we determined environmental predictors influencing the distribution of the Japanese giant salamander (Andrias japonicus) and mapped their suitable habitats under current and future climate scenarios. These results can be used as conservation tools for future decisions for the species. Climatic variables are very important in determining suitable areas for the Japanese giant salamander and future climate may have a negative impact in decreasing the quantity of highly suitable habitat areas. Due to their large geographical distribution and their ecological role as top predators in structuring communities, protecting their habitat may also benefit other aquatic species relying on the same habitats (“umbrella effect”) (
Suitable habitat characteristics identified in this study can be considered for future monitoring and conservation surveys for the Japanese giant salamander. Many locations in Japan have not been surveyed and the discovery of new populations may be possible. Similar to efforts in other regions of the world, centralising distribution data of giant salamanders across the different prefectures will allow us to produce distribution maps and analyse changes across time (
This research was supported by the “Topsalamander” and “Freshwater Predator” grants from the Freshwater and OCeanic science Unit of research (FOCUS) of the University of Liège. MD is a Research Director of Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique – FNRS and CD has a FRIA (Fonds pour la formation à la Recherche dans l’Industrie et dans l’Agriculture) doctoral grant – FNRS. We would like to thank the Hanzaki Research Institute of Japan and the Wakayama Experimental Forest of the Hokkaido University for their valuable support during the field surveys in Japan. We also thank K. Kuwabara and the Hiroshima City Asa Zoological Park for sharing data from Hiroshima prefecture, M. Takagi who very kindly shared his data from Gifu prefecture and F. Schivo and an anonymous reviewer for their constructive comments. We are grateful to thank the Asago City Board of Education and Japan’s Agency of Cultural Affairs for research permits.
C.D. and M.D. conceived the research. All authors contributed to data acquisition. C.D., A.H. and M.D. developed the methodology. C.D. conducted the statistical analyses. M.D. supervised the research. M.D., S.O., O.K., Y.T. and M.K.T. provided resources. C.D. wrote the initial manuscript draft, M.D. revised the different drafts and all authors commented on the manuscript.
Datasets generated during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
Correlation matrix of the environmental predictors used in the study (.pdf)
Environmental variables used in the modelling procedure (1 km² grid cell resolution) (.pdf)
Results of the MESS analysis comparing the reference climatic variables to the climatic variables of the projection layer (all Japan) (.pdf)
Response curves of the two land use variables: agricultural and urban areas (.pdf)
Japanese giant salamander habitat suitability projection maps generated for three time periods (2050, 2070 and 2090) considering an optimistic (SSP126) and a pessimistic scenario (SSP370) for future climate change (.pdf)